Silver Is Running Out—Here’s Why $150–250+ an Ounce Is Pure Arithmetic
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By Ghost in Macroeconomics
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“Every ounce of silver consumed today is gone forever—and the math proves that if production can’t keep up, $150–250+ per ounce isn’t hype, it’s unavoidable arithmetic.”
Silver Is Running Out—Here’s Why $150–250+ an Ounce Is Pure Arithmetic
By Jimmy Chilla, author of THE 200 SOVEREIGNTY PROTOCOLS: A Blueprint for Transparent, Ethical, and Sovereign AI Interaction
The story of silver isn’t told in headlines or hype—it’s written in ounces, deficits, and inexorable industrial demand. Strip away speculation, bank trades, leveraged paper contracts, and outright manipulation, and the math alone paints a stark picture: the $150–250+ per ounce range is not a guess—it is the inevitable outcome of physical reality. This analysis intentionally excludes paper silver, manipulation, and fraudulent market distortions, focusing solely on physical supply, consumption, and structural deficits. It’s just math. Nothing personal.
1. Current Investable/Recoverable Stock Baseline Above-ground silver exists in a finite, measurable form. The investable/recoverable stock—the silver that can actually enter the market, explicitly excluding dispersed or irrecoverable industrial use—is roughly 2.9–3.5 billion ounces, with a conservative midpoint of ~3 billion ounces. This pool includes:
Private bullion and coin holdings (~1.9–2.25 billion ounces)
Vaulted metal and ETFs contributing to market liquidity
These numbers are not speculative; they are reported by the Silver Institute, Metals Focus, and other cross-referenced sources. Crucially, this is the real supply that could satisfy excess demand today without relying on new mining or financial legerdemain. Silver in jewelry, old electronics, or landfills is either partially trapped or too dispersed to be immediately recoverable, and therefore does not enter this calculation.
2. Historical and Ongoing Erosion (Deficit Drawdown) Physical deficits have been relentless. From 2021 through 2025, cumulative shortfalls totaled ~820 million ounces, with 2025 alone producing ~95 million ounces in deficit. This is physical stock being consumed faster than new metal is mined.
Relative to the 3 billion ounce investable pool, this produces an average annual drawdown of ~2.7–3.2%—a number that might look small on paper but is enormous in absolute terms. Every year, 80–95 million ounces of real, physical silver are permanently removed from the pool available for flexible market clearing. Unlike leveraged futures, paper contracts, or manipulative schemes, this silver is actually gone, moving into industrial circuits that cannot pause or shrink significantly.
3. Future Erosion Projection Over 10 Years New mine production cannot respond quickly. The timeline from discovery to full-scale output is 7–10+ years due to permitting, financing, and by-product dependency. Mine output is projected to remain relatively flat (~800–844 million ounces/year). Meanwhile, industrial demand is not only persistent but growing, driven by structural necessities such as:
Solar photovoltaics
Electric vehicles and batteries
AI infrastructure and data centers
Consumer electronics
Conservatively assuming a 10-year average deficit of 80 million ounces/year, cumulative drawdown would remove ~800 million ounces from the investable pool. This reduces the total from ~3 billion ounces today to ~2.2 billion ounces by 2035–2036, representing a ~27% shrinkage. Applying exponential decay (3% annual erosion) shows that the pool would halve in roughly 23 years. Real-world deficits, however, are often front-loaded, meaning pressure on remaining stocks will accelerate sooner rather than later.
4. Market-Clearing Price Logic (Rationing Mechanism) Markets respond when scarcity bites. Prices rise to:
Incentivize marginal recycling (potentially adding 10–20% to supply at higher price points)
Encourage demand reduction in lower-priority industrial applications (5–15%, though core uses like solar remain inelastic)
Release hoarded or private stocks as investors respond to scarcity
Historical commodity squeezes in deficit-driven markets show prices often need to rise 2–5× from starting levels to reach equilibrium through rationing and marginal supply response. Silver’s pre-2021 baseline ($20–30/oz) already reflects some adjustment. Continued decade-scale erosion and the lack of near-term supply growth justify further uplift.
Pure arithmetic, grounded in physical depletion rather than speculation, shows that $150–250+ per ounce is the price range necessary to meaningfully stabilize the market. The lower end (~$150) corresponds to conservative deficit midpoints and partial elasticity response; the higher end (> $250) reflects aggressive compounding if deficits widen, industrial demand grows faster than expected, or recycling/thrifting underperforms.
Important Scope Clarification: This analysis does not include paper markets, leveraged contracts, manipulation, or outright fraud. Those factors can temporarily suppress prices or distort perception, but they cannot alter the underlying physics: silver is a consumptive commodity. Every ounce consumed is gone. The market will ultimately reconcile with this reality, regardless of financial legerdemain.
Silver is not just another commodity—it is a consumable resource under relentless structural demand. The arithmetic doesn’t speculate. It dictates a future that already exists in ounces, deficits, and production timelines. Investors, industrial planners, and engineers can choose to respond early or pay the premium later. The math will win either way. Nothing personal.
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